A trade group projected slower population growth, lower immigration, and weaker household formation could leave the US with fewer buyers than available inventory by 2035.
The paper projected US housing demand near 1.13M units yearly through 2035, then ~802K yearly afterward, while next-decade supply could reach 10.6M-14.6M units.
That supply estimate included aging owners transferring homes to new households, some housing loss each decade, and units not used full time because of vacancies.
The paper warned excess supply could trim loan activity and pressure prices and equity, but an economist argued builders can adjust and demand may revive.
Policymakers face the longer-term task of encouraging more affordable construction where need is highest, while keeping an eye on affordability and demographic trends.
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