A large 35-year-old cohort will reach typical first-time-buyer age within 5 yr, outnumbering today’s 40-year-olds by 280K people, creating a meaningful demand pipeline.
If 280K additional buying-age adults pair into 140K households, demand for houses could ↑~14% compared with recent new single-family construction levels as a benchmark.
Even when first-time buyers choose existing homes, those purchases help current owners move up, extending demand into newly built single-family houses too.
Housing demand depends on household formation, not just population counts; falling household size means more homes are needed for the same population base.
The outlook is not a boom scenario without much lower rates, but solid demand gains may support builders and house prices ahead.
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